Date posted: 27/04/2017 4 min read

The Future of Trade

Thought leadership paper launched

In brief

  • Our latest future[inc] thought leadership paper on The Future of Trade
  • Launch events in Canberra and Wellington

Last month Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand’s latest future[inc] thought leadership paper on The Future of Trade was launched supported by two events in Canberra and Wellington respectively.

Master of ceremony, Lee White opened both events with Kieren Gilbert, Chief Political Reporter for SKY NEWS facilitating a stellar cast of panel members in Canberra with opening keynote speaker, Chris Riddell. Chris is one of Asia’s most sought after futurists and award-winning industry recognised inspirational keynote speaker on digital. On the panel was Mark Cully, Chief Economist, Kirk Pengilly, Musician, David Rumbens, Partner at Deloitte and Kate Carnell AO, CEO. 

In Wellington, the New Zealand Trade Minister Todd McClay kicked off discussion on the importance of trade to the New Zealand economy and prosperity. Another superior line up of speakers which included Dr Ric Simes, Author & Director at Deloitte Access Economics, Simon Jones CA, CFO of Moana Fisheries, Fran O'Sullivan, Editorial Director at NZME, Victoria Spackman, CEO of Gibson Group, Bill Rosenberg, Economist and Director of Policy at Council of Trade Unions.

The following is a snapshot of the paper on key economic data and issues relevant to both Australia and New Zealand.

  • Global trade ensures we get access to a wide range of goods and services, encourages competitive markets and improved living standards. Trade is an important contributor to our economic prosperity and these changing patterns are shaping the attitudes of businesses.
  • Since the GFC, international trade has slowed, keeping pace with global GDP growth. But the tides are turning. 2016 saw improvements in container volumes, rising orders of manufacturing globally, and an increase in the number of businesses going global – all good early indicators for trace.
  • Globalisation, technology and policy will be key factors in determining the future rate of growth in international trade.
  • The paper analyses the survey results of 1,500 Australian and New Zealand businesses in order to understand the characteristics of trading businesses, how and with whom they currently trade, and their perceptions of trade in the future.
  • Top three predictions of international trade – trade is projected to grow over the next five years, service exports will continue to be important and technology is set to facilitate even more trade.
  • 59% of the 1,500 businesses surveyed, say they will continue to sell directly to customers and bypass traditional intermediaries. 
  • Online platforms will be the main method of delivery and connection to customers over the next five years and is set to double.
  • Globally, there has been greater uncertainty around trade with the election of President Donald Trump and Brexit last year. Yet strong growth and pro-trade policies in Asia mean that this region will be increasingly important for Australian businesses. In fact, by 2025 we expect our top three export destinations to be from the region – China, Japan and India, with the latter overtaking the US to claim the third spot.
Canberra event L-R: Mark Cully, Chief Economist for the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Geraldine Magarey, Karen McWilliams and David Rumbens, Partner at Deloitte

Wellington event L-R: Dr Ric Simes, Fran O’Sullivan, Lee White, Victoria Spackman, Simon Jones and Bill Rosenberg

Fran O’Sullivan and Lee White.

L-R: Kate Carnell, Mark Cully, David Rumbens, Kieren Gilbert and Kirk Pengilly

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